Will there be a NATO in Asia to counter China?
A meeting in Tokyo suggests the plans are getting more concrete.
Tensions between China and other countries bordering the South China Sea have been growing for years. Primarily it is about territorial disputes. China claims almost the entire sea area as its national territory.
However, these claims overlap with the neighboring countries.
In addition to the South China Sea, China is also expanding its influence on the new Silk Road project to Central Asia. Long-lasting territorial disputes, such as those between China and India, have flared up again.
Many of China’s neighboring countries don’t know how to deal with the new Chinese self-confidence. The country is now significantly more powerful, economically, and militarily than most of its neighboring countries. If these countries don’t approve something, they usually have no way of asserting their interests.
But now the American leadership is trying to strengthen an organization that is supposed to limit Chinese influence.
We’re talking about the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). This “informal strategic forum” consists of Australia, India, Japan, and the USA.
Did China’s foreign policy help build this forum?
Since the United States attempts to formalize the alliance
to counter China’s growing influence, Chinese foreign policy observers ask whether Beijing’s assertive foreign policies have pushed its regional allies closer to Washington.
At a recent conference with the foreign ministers of Japan, India and
Australia US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo indicates that he wants to create a closer alliance out of the countries’ previously loose group. Some observers even call this alliance similar to NATO. But it’s not that far yet.
On the other hand, China accuses the countries of the Quad, above all the USA, of acting purely politically motivated, inventing dangers, and having a cold war mindset. It thus presents itself as a victim and not as the cause of the reaction.
Chinese foreign policy analysts say that it’s unlikely that the Quad will turn into an official treaty alliance such as Nato.
But still, Beijing has to come to terms with its competitive posturing.
Significantly since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, the development of the Quad has accelerated. It is slowly beginning to develop into a real alliance, a military and political bloc that sees China’s rise as a common challenge.
Although it is not NATO, it is a problem for China’s security interests.
Even though Quad members didn’t wholly embrace Pompeo’s anti-China rhetoric, all countries stay locked in their very own personal conflicts with Beijing.
But in the end, the states agreed to improve maritime security cooperation and the construction of better infrastructure in the area.
Observers believe that the quad strengthening is directly related to China’s activities in the region. To be precise, to counter China’s self-confident demeanor and the new Chinese interests, something the individual countries cannot react to autonomously.
Thus, the formalization of the Quad can be seen as a direct response to it.
What are the implications?
Even if an alliance like NATO does not come about, the Quad has far-reaching consequences.
The current member states will coordinate their approach more closely in the future. Even if each of the countries has its interests and they do not coincide with everything, one crucial thing unites them.
The power of China.
Much more likely than a real military alliance is a political and economic one. For example, these can be trade agreements that leave China outside and with which these countries want to reduce their dependency on China.
It can also be possible to become a common contact body. Small countries in the region would not have to speak directly to their giant neighbor but can improve their negotiating position through membership in the coalition.
So will we now have an Asian NATO?
Despite all the advances and rapprochements between the Quad States, the future is far from certain.
Much will depend on the US election in November. Will Biden, should he be elected, advance this alliance, or conduct the dialogue with China differently? For example, through existing organizations such as the UN or ASEAN.
Of course, China doesn’t want to leave the future of the Quad to chance. The country is looking for ways to limit the power and growth of the Quad.
One way to do this indirectly could be a changed demeanor for China. Some observers say that it is precisely the Chinese self-confidence and uncompromising attitude that alarms neighboring countries.
If China is more sensitive to foreign policy and is more willing to compromise, this could deprive neighboring countries of their incentives to be part of the organization.
But the question is whether China can and want to do that. We don’t know much about China’s exact strategies, and maybe that’s the problem.
The discourse between East and West is almost at a standstill. This drives some countries to react and create new alliances, possibly even military alliances. China will respond accordingly.
But whether that will be with a more defensive and compromising foreign policy remains to be seen.
